In the past, I thought Optimus had potential to be worth $800B+ per year in revenue, but it looks like I was far to conservative.
source
In the past, I thought Optimus had potential to be worth $800B+ per year in revenue, but it looks like I was far to conservative.
source
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The subscription model has a glass ceiling of the minimum wage. And I don't think it will make any sense to replace a human unless the hourly cost for a robot is at least 50% cheaper than hiring a teenager or outsourcing it to Vietnam.
So charging a premium on these robots will be forever out of the equation, and so it makes no economic sense to think that these robots will replace cheap labor in a global market lol
Imagine if Netflix pitched this magnificent business proposal about never raising prices ever, stuck at charging 7 dollars forever ever, who on earth would invest in that? What that financial adviser is saying about eventually raising prices as their capabilities are improved, it is just ridiculous. As a low level cheap labor I need it to do one programmed task well, move this box from here to there, check inventory, scan items. That's it. I don't need more enhancements, and I will not pay for any other upgrades ever, I don't need it to jump or even better cognition. The best paying jobs are managerial, decision making and creative positions, and those don't require physical robots, AI will be humming quietly in a server room for those roles. You don't need a body for that.
Plus, imagine having a whole plant paralyzed for a bad update on all your "workforce", freaking nightmare.
The whole Optimus thing is doomed to fail: for industrial uses, you need specialized machines not human like inefficient and ineffective anatomical copycats rofl.
People will always hire a cheap immigrant to clean the house, not a 30K USD bipedal roomba with less dexterity than a 3 yr old, what are you guys smoking
I actually don't know if they will ever go to a sales model.
The brains will constantly improve, and ultimately, they are selling capability.
Probably easier and more profitable to lease them out… and safer.
I can think of other reasons to stick with a rental model:
1) Waste/Recycling control:
It would be bad if old robots weren't disposed of properly, from optics to environmental to regulatory.
2) Unauthorized Repurposing:
Could you imagine if these things were turned into some warlord's personal army, or into gangland enforcers.
3) Competing with old models:
Why give customers the choice to save by sticking with old stuff?
4) Data Collection:
You want as much as you can get. It's the life blood of an A.I. company.
5) Control:
Why give any up?
These are just a few things I can think of that say a sales model is bad.
Maybe competition will force your hand and you'll have to sell, I can't say for sure.
I just know I'd stick with a subscription model for as long as it was viable.
The calculation doesn't work that way because there is cost pressure from competing products. In the end, such a bot must and will be much cheaper and this will promote its adoption. Competing products will probably be more successful because they are already more developed than Optimus.
Optimus walks like Biden.
Space opens up infinite growth
Quadrupled logistics with the ability to spread out for better quality of life multi skillset wholistic knowledge interactive education on universal operating systems getting 21 yr olds into the workforce early ,less white/ blue collar devides, ability to operate business in the middle of nowhere usa that only major city's could support in the past, ability to simulate fine-tuned atoms to extract low concentration of minerals in what was obstacle and terrortory no one thought possible to live in is the big deal of it all .
Local regional owners and operaters of power & utility while tech oligarchy pays fpr it is a key city ,state socio-political and the ( economic balance) switch everyone must have compartmentalized ideas & control over.
Granted Robots will become universal in the future. But there is reason no to equate that with Tesla. History shows that early leaders in a new field often fade away before the field actually takes off. Consider Blackberry and Palm Pilot in the cell phone space. Undoubted leaders with the best technology early on that faded before they could capitalize on their lead. Same with PCs. None of the early leaders — Wang, Xerox (the inventor of the Window UI), Digital, Pet, Osborne, Pet — survived past the early days. So robots will become a 250 trillion market. But Tesla may not be among the survivors even given its early lead. Just look at how much trouble Tesla is already having in the EV space against more nimble competitors from Korea and China.
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TSLA stock sliding all year and Elmo's personal army of liars, pumpers, and apologists are out in force saying that "Yes, the King does indeed have clothes". Elmo is going to trial for fraud around claims about FSD. He owes big money to some pretty unsavory people so he has to keep shoveling to save his own skin. If the Tesla board of directors had any spine or sense of fiduciary obligation to the shareholders they would remove Elmo, but the cult won't allow it. Tesla and Musk is high tech bros Jonestown.
They will get a union and then all numbers will be a dream!
I think the lease vs. buy argument is wrong, I suspect it will be more along the lines of high end CAD systems, you have to buy the robot outright, then you have to pay a monthly maintenance fee. They might require the maintenance fee also, not make it optional SO you get both the sale and the monthly fee.
All I need is one Optimus that has learned to make copies of itself.
Musk is absolutely brilliant in certain ways. One example is his epic ability to keep the Tesla stock price elevated via a series of "hot new technologies" with "immense market potential" which keeps his devoted followers buying. The smarter traders have left long ago, recognizing what lies ahead. The bot concept is interesting but a close look at what it will actually take to get to markets is sobering. Regulatory approvals for widespread applications is likely a decade away. Safety concerns in human-bot environment are infinitely and regulators know it. But these realities are not Teslas most immediate threat. It's musk's imminent mental breakdown that will bring the stock price down to earth.
What prevents powerful countries from eventualky weaponising humanoid robots?! ☠️
How's the Tesla self driving car going …. not too well
Tax system will need to see some wild changes.
250 trillion ? Are they on drug ? I think it is akin to having a new robotic race.
There are many other companies in the world who compete with Tesla. The price cannot be dominated by Tesla only
I love Cerns analysis
When they anounced Optimus they were kind of the first and special. Now we already have 15 very hard competitors that seem even to have better bots already now. There will be so many bot companies, the prices and margins will ve very low. Think about it.
The Robots will be making the Robots :).
Thank you – you’ve made he think.
The first person on Mars will be a robot.
Tax will need to be paid on each robot.
The uncertainty I have is about how intelligent Optimus will be. That's how easily it can learn new tasks.
Simple repetitive tasks will be enough at the beginning. But more flexible ones, like household work, is possibly out of reach for a long time.
This can easily cut the profitability by a factor of 10.
Every person in the first world will have a bot.